Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The Western Conference Playoffs are Here

For all intents and purposes, the NBA playoffs have started in the Western Conference. The kinda-Big Nine, (we wont include the Blazers) are separated by a measely 7 games (5 games for the first through eighth seeds), and aside from gunning for home field advantage, most need to worry about making the playoffs.

Last week, watching the Mavs-Spurs and Jazz-Hornets games you could sense that these games suddenly felt different. They no longer smacked of that dullness unique to the regular season. In the latter game, Chris Paul sank the nail-in-the-coffin free throws to chants of "MVP." Duncan got the same treatment courtesy of the San Antonio crowd. We're surely on pace to break some sort of MVP chant record. Here's L.A. for Kobe when they beat the Mavs.

The reason for this enthusiasm is that the fans are turning out to pack the arenas for these games, because the increase of intensity has been palpable to everyone. And as they turn out, the Pauls and Kobes of the world have been rewarding them (like Kobe's 22 4th quarter points in that Lakers win). It started with the avalanche of trades, the three biggest of which all sent the biggest piece from East to West: Gasol to L.A., Shaq to Phoenix, Kidd to Dallas. Meanwhile the Spurs and Warriors quietly added size and depth (Thomas and Webber respectively), Utah got itself a shooter in Korver, and Houston and New Orleans swapped scoring for a deeper bench.

And just like that, each team was energized by the added pieces, while at the same time, their competiveness was fueled by the other teams' deals. We always hear about how teams like the Spurs or Pistons - veteran, championship teams, - know to take their games to another level this time of year, but now, everyone everyone has (in the West anyway). The trades kick started an escalating cycle of intensification, further motivating each team until that intensity reached a level that normally qualifies as playoff caliber.

Kobe, after the Lakers beat the Suns: "It was a familiar energy in the building. It felt like a playoff-type of environment. It was fun to be a part of."

And Stephen Jackson after the Warriors beat the Blazers: "For us, every game is a playoff game."

There are about 20 games left in the regular season, give or take, per-team. Then there are another possible 28 games of the playoffs for the eventual conference champions. So are we to expect the kinda-Big Nine to naturally kick it up one more notch somehow? How will that shake out for the Western conference finalist? Will they be so habituated to playing at such a high level that they'll come out and absolutely demolish the East rep? Or will the opposite happen, that they'll beat each other up so much in the next four months that they'll be drained by the battle royale and thus not have enough left in the tank when the finals roll around? Because as much as the West is collectively better than the east, no one argues that the East's big three (Boston 18-7 vs. West, Detroit 16-8, Cleveland 16-12) can't hang with their western counterparts.

Just by virtue of the surplus of so many good teams, each of the kinda-Big Nine's schedule is brutal. Lets just look at a sampling, how often they have to play the top teams during their next 10 games: Every single one of these teams plays at least four out of their next ten against each other or Boston/Detroit. (Incidentally no one plays Cleveland in their next 10). Phoenix and Houston lead the way with the toughest schedules (not taking into account back-to-backs) with seven out of their next ten against top dogs. The teams (along with their current hot streak) are listed in order of the standings entering tonights' games.

SA 14-1, (10 in a row): at Denver, at PHO, Denver, at NO, at Detroit, Boston

Lakers: 16-3 (13-2 with Gasol) at NO, at Houston, at Dallas, at Utah, GS, at GS

NO 8-4: at Houston, SA, Lakers, at Detroit, Houston, Boston

Utah 16-4: at Phoenix, Denver, Boston, Lakers

Phoenix (No hotness to speak of) 10-7 (3-4 with Shaq): at Denver, Utah, SA, GS, Houston, at Detroit, at Boston

Houston 15-0: at Dallas, NO, Lakers, Boston, at NO, at GS, at Phoenix

Dallas – not hot, no matter how you slice it: 8-7 or even 12-7 if you prefer (4-4 with Kidd) Houston, Lakers, Boston, SA

Golden State 10-3: at Phoenix, Houston, at Lakers

Denver 9-4: Phoenix, SA, at Utah, at SA, at Det

Mark Cuban touched on this a couple weeks ago already, speculating that this was shaping up to be the best NBA season ever. And it's looking like he was quite prescient. "Everybody right know is fighting for their lives and fighting for a playoff spot. It was a fun game to be a part of," said Deron Williams about their win against the Mavs. Just a couple of days before that, Chris Paul threw this one out when they beat the Jazz: "When you play against the best, it brings out the best in you."


UPDATE:
The guys from bleacher report recently covered this as well, handy charts included.

Early NFL FA Reviews: Jags

The jags traded 3-time all-pro Marcus Stroud to the Bills for a 3rd and a 5th. Stroud was put on injured reserve in week 15, with what the Jaguars characterized as a "career-threatening injury," after playing only 9 games. The year before he only played in 11 games.

They also chose not to re-sign former starting DE Bobby McCray (who was picked up by the Saints). McCray was in a three man DE rotation with Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward. He was expendable because Spicer's number compared favorably with his (and in fact Spicer was getting more playing time by the end of the season), and because the Jags still have a lot of money invested in Hayward whom they signed as a FA 2 years ago (5 yrs, $25 mil, 10 mil guaranteed).

As for Stroud, the Jags have long acknoweldged that they wouldnt be able to keep both of their superb DTs (Stroud and John Henderson) locked up longterm, so it's no surprise that they traded Stroud when faced with the possibility of an irrevocable decline of his abilities. To fill the spot they signed Jimmy Kennedy, a former 1st round pick out of Penn State who hasn't lived up to his billing. Kennedy is nowhere near the player that an injury-free Stroud is, but should be a serviceable backup to the rotation of Henderson, Rob Meier, and Grady Jackson.

As for their offense, they traded a sixth round pick for Troy Williamson and signed Jerry Porter. The Williamson trade was widely reported as a reunion for him and formed Head Coach Mike Tice. The suggestion alone, that the ticket-scalping Tice, whose reign in Minnesota also saw the infamous sex-boat party, somehow had a hand in this decision makes me nervous. As for Porter, he of the 44 receptions, and the largely-missed 2006 season because of disagreements with Art Shell over whether or not champagne should be allowed in the locker room, his 5 year, $30 million dollar contract is an eyebrow-raiser as well.

Are those two an upgrade over Ernest Wilford, whom the Jaguars chose not to re-sign? Porter and Wilford were statistically comparable, Porter having a slight edge in yards and TDs, while Williamson doesn't bring much other than a reputation for dropping balls. (See here and here). The only distinction to make is that both Porter and Williamson are deep threats, and Wilford was not. In fact, this past season, none of the Jags receivers were.

The bottom line is that the Jags have struggled to replace Jimmy Smith's and Keenan McCardell's production (particularly Smith's) for 2+ years. It can't get much worse than it's been, as the Jags WR problems have certainly been the bane of Del Rio's tenure. Perhaps the best solution might have been his promotion of Garrard to starter, as he seemed to finally bring out that first-round promise out of Reggie Williams (10 TDs last year). Perhaps with Garrard's continued development, Porter and/or Williamson might actually turn out to be significant additions.

Remembering Warren Sapp

While most of the sports-watching world reacted to Brett Favre's retirement, another football legend called it quits: defensive tackle Warren Sapp.

Sapp will always be known as one of the guys most responsible for turning the Bucs from perennial laughingstock (going fourteen years without a winning season) to one of the NFL's powerhouses of the late 1990s and early 2000s, culminating of course with their dominant win in Super Bowl XXXVII, which was fittingly led by their defense.

During his time in Tampa, Sapp established himself as the face of the Bucs, which was good because their previous face was this. This was due not only to his play but his antics, such as "The Skipping Incidents", in which he repeatedly ran through other teams' warmups.

Here's the man in his own words (followed by Jon Gruden)

New addition: a good discussion thread on Sapp's Hall of Fame chances

Friday, February 29, 2008

Derek Anderson and the Browns

The Cleveland Browns have just signed Derek Anderson to a 3-year deal. And in doing so, they might have missed a great chance to improve their roster.

Had another team signed the QB, Cleveland would have picked up first- and third-round picks in the process. That would have allowed the team to improve a defense that ranked 30th in 2008, while turning over the reins of a high-powered offense to Brady Quinn. The combination of a strong defense, great offensive weapons, and a young QB, incidentially, is the model the Steelers have used to rule the NFC North over the past few years. While two draft picks would obviously not put their defense at the level of Pittsburgh's, it would be a step in the right direction.

Of course, the Browns' move to sign Anderson - and forego the chance at the draft picks - is a smart one if Anderson is the great QB the Cleveland brain trust apparently thinks he is. But how much of the former 6th-rounder's breakout 2007 performance due to the fact that he had Braylon Edwards, a healthy Kellen Winslow, a resurgent Jamal Lewis, and the great rookie O-Lineman Joe Thomas on the field with him? Let's also not forget that Anderson managed only a 9 TD - 10 INT ratio over his last seven games, a severe drop-off from the 20/9 ratio of his first nine. The move to forego the picks is all the more questionable considering the Browns' solid recent draft history.


The other twist here is that the Browns might think they can do better than a first- and third-rounder if they turn around and deal Anderson; there have been rumors of such a sign-and-trade move.

In any event, the move leaves Cleveland with two now-big-name QBs with a half-season of good NFL work between them and serious sunk costs in terms of money and foregone draft picks, all with the bitter taste from last year's late-season failure still in their mouths, great offensive weapons, and a defensive-minded fourth-year coach who still has yet to guide his team to the postseason. How this shakes out should be one of the NFL's more interesting storylines of the next year.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Links: China gets ready for Olympics

With 6 months to go until the Summer Olympics in Beijing, the coverage is starting to pick-up. Yet, most of it hasn't focused on the athletes or the competitions, but rather the host.

A brief compendium:
Since getting the games in 2001, China has been remodeling the look of their homes and streets, razing entire neighborhoods including large parts of the historic sector of Beijing. In their eagerness to appeal to the western world, the new new high rises that are being built in place of the old homes have names like "Greenwich" and "Upper East Side."

However, the intense modernization and urbanization has come at the expense of people's livelihoods and sometimes their lives. Thus, unfortunately, the hyper-modernization has been on the face only, as the country's long-condemned human rights record has yet to improve, despite the promises made when campaigning for the bid eight years back.

They've been educating their citizens in etiquette, teaching them how to queue and instituting a "give your seat up on the bus" day. At the same time, they're jailing citizens that have dared protest, and asking athletes (their own as well as everoyne else's) to keep their mouths shut. Throughout all this, the IOC has kept their own mouth shut without being asked.



*That second to-last link was found on thebiglead.

Update: China will resume human rights dialogue with US

Thursday, February 21, 2008

The Shaq-Marion Trade: The Bigger Picture

Like I said in last week’s post, the Heat are essentially in rebuilding mode for the next two years. If they’re competitive next year, that’ll be a nice bonus, but they’re focus will ultimately be on the 09/10 season. Their sole priority over the next two years will be to build a roster and develop the talent to retain Wade when his contract expires.

One of the way the Heat (or any other team in their situation) could expedite this process isn’t being fully utilized. As presently constituted, the NBDL is functioning at less than half its capacity. Franchises undergoing rebuilding periods is an inevitability, but that process dragging on for years isn’t.

This is why the NBA should continue to grow the NBDL. In March of 2005 Stern said, “I would like to see a 15-team development league where two NBA teams could share one development team. The younger players could get the needed coaching, training and life skills that would make them better NBA players.” Stern is on the right track, but stopping at 15 teams, is too modest a goal.


The virtues of a true farm system
The parent club would be able to dictate the style of play to their affiliate, thus giving an advantage to possible call-ups. It would benefit both the individual player as well as the NBA team: a seamless transition (system-wise) would improve the player's chances of sticking and simultaneously not disrupt his team's chemistry.

No longer in a gladiator-type battle NBDL players could worry less about eye-catching play, which often comes at the expense of teammates, and instead focus on all facets of their game, not just the glamorous ones. Because while yes, other teams’ scouts would be watching them too, they would primarily be seeking to impress the parent club.

Having a direct relationship with the parent club would foster a greater sense of team cohesiveness. The coaches and the training staff of the NBDL team would be those picked by the parent franchise, the players would be coming up together.

There would be no gaps in the direction of development. In SI’s 1/20/08 issue, Ian Thomsen, covering the NBDL “showcase” describes how Seattle’s player personnel chief Bil Branch has to “urge” Sene’s coach to give him more playing time, because the Sonics want to see some development from their $3 million/year investment. Thus without any official obligation, the Sonics must then count on favors from NBDL coaches, should they have a directional preference for a particular player.


This is where we’re at now
The Spurs were the first NBA team (11/06) to go out buy their own NBDL affiliate. Is it any surprise that the team with the best front office and top-down organization in the NBA was the first to make such a move? Now, this past summer the Lakers followed suit and bought one for themselves as well. This should be the clearest signal yet for Stern to act, because while the actions of these two teams send a strong message about the value of a minor league, there are still 28 other teams who have yet to act would benefit from the league's help and guidance.


Why this has become a necessity
1. The dilution of draft talent: With college no longer serving as a free farm system because of so many early departures, (the new age limit only mitigates the effect so much) a new one has to be created. There needs to be a substitute for the lack of in-game experience for the players that elect to forgo their junior and senior years.

2. The continuing expansion of the game globally: The pool of players is constantly growing larger. Right now we’re at 82 foreigners out of approximately 400 NBA players, somewhere around 25%. Nike, for one, had been counting on 50% by the end of the decade, and with Stern’s recent announcement about a 5-team Europe division, theirs seems a prescient prediction.

To top it all off, if NBA can support the WNBA as it hemorrhages untold millions, solely for the ostensible PR and general goodwill purposes, then it can surely fund a minor league system and thus ensure a greater quality of play.


Back to the Heat
So lets return to the present example, the Heat. This is a perfect season for Miami to try to develop new talent. Chris Quinn, Daequan Cook and Dorrell Wright have already been getting many more minutes than their numbers justify. Whats unfortunate is that their isn’t a mechanism in place for the Heat to embrace this rebuilding opportunity with more enthusiasm. If only the Heat could make a couple of call-ups and be that just that much better next yearand that much more certain of their off-season needs. And as an incidental benefit, there would be a lot less complaining about the late season tanking because the system would be perceived much like baseball’s September call-ups.

Perhaps the Heat’s hypothetical minor league team wouldn’t have anyone worthy of a call-up, just like the Heat haven’t called up any D-leaguer in real life. However, without that team existing, practicing the Heat’s system, and it’s coaches reporting directly back to Riley, the Heat (and every other NBA team except for the Lakers and Spurs) are missing out on an opportunity. And what’s more, in five years, and then ten years, and on and on into the future, as the global talent pool continues to grow, that opportunity missed will be a much bigger one than it is today.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

What About Sterling Sharpe?

This year Art Monk finally made it into the Hall of Fame, and there has been plenty of hand-wringing over Cris Carter's exclusion. But there's one receiver who's arguably better than either who has been left out in the cold yet again: Sterling Sharpe. Here are some highlights from Sharpe's considerable resume.
  • Sharpe is a 5-time All-Pro, compared to 3 times for Monk and and 4 for Carter.

  • Sharpe led the league in receptions 3 times; Monk and Carter once each.
  • Sharpe twice led the league in touchdowns, as did Carter; Monk never had double-digit touchdowns in a season.

  • Sharpe led the league in receiving yards in 1992; neither Monk nor Carter ever did this.

If there's a knock on Sharpe, it's that his career ended prematurely, cut short by a neck injury . Because of this, his career numbers don't match up to Carter's or Monk's. But it also makes his high number of All-Pro selections and stat leaders even more staggering. And, there are other Hall of Famers with relatively brief but stellar careers: Gale Sayers, like Sharpe, played only seven seasons, and made such an impact in that time he earned a spot in Canton. Hall of Famer Earl Campbell played eight season; Lynn Swann and the great Jim Brown played only nine but were considered worthy of Hall inclusion.

Another Hall of Famer receiver for comparison: Hall of Famer Michael Irvin. Both he and Sharpe came into the league in 1988. In the seven years they were both in the league, Sharpe's numbers blow Irvin's away. Sharpe had 65 touchdowns to Irvin's 40; 595 catches to Irvin's 316; and over 8,000 yards to Irvin's less than 7,000. Yes, Irvin played in an offense focused more on the running game and also had some strong seasons late in his career, but it's hard to get around the fact that they both finished their careers with 65 TDs even though Irvin had give more years to do it. If Irvin made it in, Sharpe should be a no-brainer.

Monk, Carter and Irvin had great careers, but were not as dominant at their position as Sterling Sharpe. Few receivers ever were. The guy even made an All-Pro out of Don Majkowski! If not for his injury and playing his entire career for the then-irrelevant Packers, Sharpe would have been in Canton long ago. At this point, the only thing more inexplicable than his exclusion from the Hall is the fact that neither the media nor the voters seem to have noticed.