More baseball: FInal Installments of Johan and Miggy

We waited on the final installment of the trade-tracker series to see if Johan might win the NL Cy Young. He finished third.

Our previous update came with three weeks left in the regular season. Santana finished strong, doing as much as he could to get get the Mets to the playoffs. He ended the season with the ERA crown.

Twins

Rob Neyer thought Carlos Gomez “might have been the best outfielder on the planet this season,” and lamented that the OF Gold Gloves went elsewhere.

With the exception of one instance of long relief, Phil Humber only saw action as an inning eater. In his one opportunity he acquitted himself nicely, giving up 2 in 5.1 IP, keeping the game within reach for a Twins ninth inning comeback.

GM Bill Smith offered this about Humber and his other two pitchers from the Santana deal:
"Humber and Mulvey both struggled in the first half, but their first half and second half were dramatically different. Humber had a tremendous second half [2.67 ERA after the All-Star break, compared to 5.92 ERA before], and Mulvey was very good [3.64 after, 3.84 before]...Guerra is so young. He's got a world of ability."


Red Sox

Ellsbury wasn’t able to break out of his September slump and in the playoffs was ignominiously replaced by Coco Crisp. He finished the regular season as the AL steals leader and third in ROY voting.

A November 2 headline from pawsox.com: "Buchholz rebounding nicely in Arizona Fall League." A November 4 headline from the Portland Press Herald: "Buchholz hit hard again." It’s tough to gage whether Theo Epstein was being honest or polite when he said, “As a whole…it was a constructive development time. I think he regained his confidence, his stuff was crisp and he tweaked his delivery out of the stretch. We’re very glad he went (to the AFL). It allowed him to write a little different ending to his season.” Even if that’s a sincere appraisal, the feelings must not be strong ones because his name has been floated in trade talks.


Lester finished September 4-1 with an ERA barely over 2, and with Beckett’s oblique problem, became the staff ace in the playoffs. He handled the Angels twice, shutting them out for 14 innings. He was respectable in game 7 against the Rays (3 earned in 7 IP), but couldn’t match Garza and Price on the other side. He wants one pitch back.

Yankees

Like Buchholz, Phil Hughes is also working on his stuff in the AFL. His last start offered some hope, but The New York Times is already calling him a failure, ESPN’s Jason Grey suggests that his ceiling is now as a middle-of-rotation starter, and he’s being outpaced in Google search results by a cricketer of the same name.

Cashman said that CF would not be a priority in the off-season, but it wouldn't be surprising if Melky Cabrera was moved.

-Agent Easy

"It's time to be a MAN."

That's what Johan Santana wrote in the Mets clubhouse before Saturday's game.

Then, Santana, (who we briefly disparaged here) went out and pitched on short rest after notching his career-high pitch count in his previous start. He threw back-to-back complete games, last night's a shutout. When the Mets needed him with their season on the line, he showed his mettle and (temporarily) saved their season.

Then today, CC Sabathia one-upped him, leaving nothing temporary about his performance.

Sabathia went to the mound for the third consecutive time on three days' rest and threw his MLB-leading 9th complete game, this one also a shutout. The Brew Crew went to the playoffs at the expense of the Mets.

These two just put the exclamation point on our argument from Friday, showing what it really means for a pitcher to go the full nine. Props to Johan, who as we pointed out, could stand to record 27 outs a little more frequently. Dropped jaws to CC, who finished his NL season 10-2 with a 1.65 era and four shutouts.


Here is a measure of awe from their teammates and coaches:

"That was probably the best pitching performance that I've ever been a part of." - David Wright
"To me, if you want my own opinion, it’s the best I’ve seen, given the situation.” - Pedro
"That was serious 'gangsta' right there!" - Jerry Manuel

"CC has the heart of a lion," - Robin Yount.
"That was one of the greatest performances of all time," - Dale Sveum
“The short rest thing is what’s unbelievable. There’s no words for that. It’s a new category for him now. He’s got his own category. It’s not even clutch. It’s just being that dude.” - Prince Fielder

-Agent Easy

Johan - Miggy Part 3: Santana

We're still following all of the players involved in the Miggy and Johan trades and trade talks. This is part 3. A refresher on the whos and the whys: parts 1 and 2.

Mets

Santana is having his typically filthy second half: he's won his last 6 decisions and hasn't given up more than 3 runs since July 17.

The Mets pitchers (Wagner, Maine) are dropping like flies, and last year's collapse is still fresh on everyone's mind, so he has that much less room for error.

Hopefully the Mets offense continues to provide sufficient run support, and the wins continue to suppress the bickering. To wit: The NY Post at the end of June:

At least one person in the Mets' clubhouse didn't appreciate Johan Santana pointing the blame at teammates for not scoring enough runs in the four straight decisions the ace left-hander has lost.

Posted anonymously inside the clubhouse was this saying: "Rare is the person who can weigh the faults of others without putting his thumb on the scales."

Twins

Carlos Gomez has struggled at the plate, but that hasn't mattered much to his manager. Gardenhire's season-long theme regarding Gomez continues:

"He's exciting," Gardenhire said. "Guys are into it. When he's all over the field like he usually is, the other team they see what we're trying to do here and it affects them. They have to start getting the ball in quicker. And that's what it is all about."

"I'm not saying other guys aren't bringing that energy to the table, but there is something different about that young man that he does," Gardenhire said. "He's got a little charisma."

For the Sabermaticians out there who might snicker at the above praise for intangibles, the Jamesian "Zone Rating" and "Range Factor" both show Gomez to be the top defensive CF in all of baseball.

Phil Humber was the only one of the rest of the batch to get a September call-up. He made his Twins debut last week and gave up 1 run in 2/3 IP of mop-up duty.

Deolis Guerra is still a typical 19 year-old developing in A ball. He can throw 95, but is reworking his arm angle.

Kevin Mulvey has been in AAA all year. He's lowered his ERA in three consecutive months, finishing his August 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and healthy 8 K/9. Considering that the Twins' bullpen is struggling maybe Mulvey might get a call to contibute in these next couple weeks. Then again, per CBA rules, as a 2006 draft pick out of college, Mulvey isn't required to be added to the 40 man roster until after the 2009 season, so maybe the frugal Twins will elect to keep him from arbitration that one extra year.

Red Sox

After his hot start, Jacoby Ellsbury has definitely been slowed in the second half, not surprising, considering it's his first full season in the bigs. He missed a few games in August with a sore wrist and now it looks like he might miss a few more because of his ailing quad. Regardless, he remains valued for his speed, toughness, and hustle. He still leads the league in Stolen Bases.

Clay Buchholz toiled in the minors for a while, working out injuries and technique, then got called up for a month, only to be sent right back down.

Jon Lester is 14-5, with a 3.23ERA, the latter good for 4th in the league.

The guys at Sports Lounge said it well:

Lester has become everything Buchholz was expected to be, but with a little less hype. He’s been nothing short of spectacular this season, leading Red Sox in innings pitched (167.2) and ERA (3.17). Since Buchholz’s no-hitter on September 1st of last year, Lester has won Game 4 of last year’s Fall Classic, pitched his own no-hitter, and become Boston’s solid number three starter behind Beckett and Dice-K . Dice-K has been terrific this season; he and Lester are the sole reasons the starting rotation has put Boston at the top of the wildcard standings.

Lester said after his last win,

“I think I’m more consistent with my mechanics, that’s making me stronger,” Lester said. “I don’t have to use as much energy, wasted energy, as before. Now it just seems that I’m more efficient and I’m consistent with what I’m trying to do, so I’m not wasting energy on bad thoughts or anything like that."

Yankees

Phil Hughes spends most of the season on the DL with broken ribs and then rehabbing in the minors. It looks like he's finally healthy and doing well.

Melky Cabrera was playing so poorly (.242/.296/.337 thru 117 games) that he was sent down August 15. Now that Bobby Abreu will miss a few games with a hurt wrist, he'll have another chance, but has "much to prove."


The Miguel Cabrera Trade coming tommorrow

-Agent Easy

Miggy-Johan update part 2: Johan

Mets

Like the Tigers, the Mets have struggled this season. The two teams with huge payrolls and expectations to match have combined to win 49% of their games, and each is in 4th place in their respective division. Mets Santana's been good, but not great, not $135 mil great. At 7-4 and a 3.08 ERA he's not best-pitcher-in-the-game great, for sure. He's been less of a disappointment that Miggy, but how much of a compliment is that? The upside is he's consistently had better second halves (last season not withstanding). An '06 or an '04-like July-Sept run would justify his salary and maybe even rescue the Mets' season and Willie's job.

Twins

Carlos Gomez is filling the void* left by Torii Hunter. Gardenhire debated bumping him from the lead-off spot, but settled on keeping things as they were, reasoning that "Gomez is so dynamite as far as leading off a game and can spark us so much..." Alternately, the AP's Dave Campbell suggests that Gomez needs to harness his eagerness. Within the same piece he calls Deolis Guerra, still playing A ball, the most promising of the three pitching prospects in this deal. Considering Humber's and Mulvey numbers, Guerra can have that title almost by default. Phil Humber, initially touted as the 1A to Gomez among the four prospects, has been struggling in AAA (1-5 and 5.89 ERA), and is now day-to-day with elbow soreness. Kevin Mulvey is similarly underperforming, sitting at 2-6 with a 4.36 ERA.

What the Yanks and Sox held on to:

Yanks

Last we checked in, the Post's Joel Sherman speculated about Melky Cabrera's potential regression. He started the year slow, but now his numbers project out to about the same ones he posted last year. Phil Hughes has been sitting on the shelf since the end of April with a broken rib. The initial projction was that he'd be due back in two months. Today he was cleared to start a throwing program in two weeks, but the Daily News reports that he'll likely be out until August. Baseball Digest think his mechanics are suspect.

Red Sox

To begin the month Jon Lester sandwiched a beaning and a suspension in between two wins. For what its worth, Lester believes he was innocent, and points out that he hit Carl Crawford with a breaking pitch. Of course the biggest Lester story of the season was his no hitter that was trumpeted with well-deserved headlines like this. He's 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and a remarkable 7 no-decisions.

Clay Buchholz was originally sent to Triple-A Pawtucket to rehabilitate after he broke a nail. Seriously. After he finished his rehab the Sox left him in the minors to work on his arm slot and to better locate his fastball. He blamed his latest poor outing on his catcher.

Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting only .280 and has an .370 OBP, but he leads the league in stolen bases, is on pace to score 100+ runs, and is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league.

Basebeball Preview, part 1: Johan and Miggy "what ifs"

We're going to do a non-traditional baseball preview here (that we're doing one after the season has already started should let you know as much). It will be light on predicted standings and heavy on the stories.

First up we have the two blockbuster trades that happened in the off-season. Johan Santana was shipped to the Mets and Miguel Cabrera (along with Dontrelle Willis) to the Tigers. What was significant about both of these trades is that they were both preceded by tons of rumors that the trades would happen elsewhere. The fall was filled with Santana to the Yanks and Santana to the Red Sox stories, and the winter, to only a slighlty lesser degree, had its share of Miggy to the Angels and then Dodgers rumors. In both cases the suitors seemed to come out of nowhere to trump the previously much publicized (and much debated) offers.

We'll play the "what if" game throughout the season, to the degree that it can be played. We'll regularly check on the players that the Yanks, Sox, Angels, and Dodgers would have given up (stats and commentary both), as well as the ones that the Mets and Tigers eventually did, and try to figure out if the other trade offers were in fact better or worse and for whom. Of course, I say above "to the degree it can be played" because such is the nature of "what if?" scenarios. For example, we only know that the Yankees were offering a package centered around Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes, with the surrounding pieces uncertain. Similarly the Twins were seeking two of three Sox: Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz, and the Dodgers and Angels reported offerings were only for Cabrera whereas the Tigers package was for Cabrera and Willis both.

For this first entry, we're concentrating on the stories and the off-season expectations of the respective players involved. As the season progresses we'll focus more on their stats.

The Johan Trade

Mets received:
Johan Santana - 'nuff said

Twins received:
Carlos Gomez
Phil Humber
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey

This is a good recap, a "what to expect" piece from the Twins perspective.


Yankees offered:
Melky Cabrera - The Post's Joel Sherman sees a Melky regression on the horizon.
Phil Hughes - Meanwhile, Hughes finds his groove.

Red Sox offered 2 of the 3:
Jon Lester - ends spring training with control problems.
Clay Buchholz
Jacoby Ellsbury - There's pressure on Buchholz and Ellsbury to keep it up.

The Miggy Trade

Tigers received:
Miguel Cabrera
Dontrelle Willis

Marlins received:
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Mike Rabelo
Eulogio De La Cruz
Dallas Trahern
Burke Badenhop

Here's a recap of what both sides got out of the trade.

Angels offered:
Howie Kendrick - SI says, Kendrick is a natural.
Jeff Mathis - will compete/platoon with Napoli

and one of three:
Ervin Santana - Scioscia liked Santana's spring, management gave him a pay cut.
Joe Saunders - secures a spot in the rotation because of injuries.
Nick Adenhart - might get the call for the 5th starter's spot.

Dodgers offered:
Matt Kemp - looks like he'll will be starting over Juan Pierre.
Andy LaRoche - out until May.
Clayton Kershaw - on the cusp of the majors.