NFL rule changes

A look at the rule changes adopted by the NFL this past week (summarized here):


Putting less on the officials:

"The force-out rule was eliminated, meaning a player who catches a ball must have both feet (or another body part) in bounds. "

A smart move. It was an unnecessary judgment call to put into the hands of the refs. You're asking for controversy like with the Browns comeback against the Cardinals last year.

"Incidental grasp and release of the facemask, which was a 5-yard penalty, no longer will be penalized. The 15-yard penalty remains intact for twisting, turning or pulling the mask."

Good. Why open it up to complaints of how severe the penalty should be? Yes, there will still be complaints about whether or not the penalty should be caled at all, but thats one less point to argue.

Correcting some obvious mistakes:

"Instant replay was expanded to include review of field goals (except those above either upright that don't touch anything)."

Why wasn't this included to begin with? Probably becasue they didnt foresee this.

"Snaps untouched by a player in position to receive a hand-to-hand snap will no longer be a false start, and either team may recover and advance the ball."

A logical move as well - good explanation here.

More puzzling decisions:

"Teams winning the coin toss now can defer a decision until the second half."

Jack Del Rio seems to think this one was important

"Muffed illegal forward handoffs will be treated as fumbles, and no longer as incomplete forward passes."

We're not sure what prompted this one, but in any case it seems to make sense - why should offenses get the benefit of an incompletion (as opposed to a fumble) in a situation where they wouldn't be allowed to pass the ball anyway?

Not Passed

A new playoff seeding system, "allowing wild-card teams to be seeded ahead of the division winner with the third- or fourth-best record, if they had a better record."

Interesting idea - the point was to create more competition for playoff seeding and therefore having fewer meaningless games at the end of the season, like last year's Tennessee-Indy game in which Indy's playoff seeding was already set, and the Titan's victory over the Colts' backups knocked Cleveland out of the playoffs.

Of course, it's always good to avoid meaningless games, but the proposed system would have removed the reward for winning your division, traditionally very important. Apparently this was too high a price to get a little more jockeying for position at the end of the season, as the proposal didn't even get enough support to be put to a formal vote.

Baseball Preview, part 4: Trade Bait

Hank Blalock - his production has dropped off in the past few years, but his salary has been rising and just as the going-nowhere Rangers shipped Teixiera last season, they could look for someone to take Blalock (who has often been linked to trade rumors) off their hands.

Keith Foulke - the A's have a reclamation project going with him. Oakland will be hard-pressed to finish above 3rd this year, and several of the contenders will inevitably be looking for bullpen help, so if he pans out it wouldn't be surprising for the A's to try to parlay him for some younger talent.

Kevin Gregg - you wouldn't think that (a) Florida had anybody left to trade and (b) that he was the highest-paid Marlin at $2.5 million, but with the team always looking to cut costs and the fact that contenders will be looking to add an OK reliever, he could easily switch teams before the deadline.

Anyone on the White Sox - this team has a high payroll and plenty of big-money players, yet it's hard to imagine them being able to challenge Cleveland and Detroit in their division. This could mean some rebuilding-type moves are in the cards for this season.

Baseball Preview, part 3: Teams Making the Leap

From Basement Dweller to Respectable
The Rays once again start the season with no hope of challenging for the playoffs, but this could be the year they dig themselves out of the basement and threaten 80 wins (or at the very least a more modest team record of 71).

They have a solid one-two punch at the top of their rotation in Kazmir and the up and coming James Shields. They even go three-deep with sub 4.00 ERA starters with Matt Garza.

Their 2-4 hitters are Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena (coming off of 46 HRs), and BJ Upton (80+ RBIs and Runs in only 129 games).

Add to this the plummeting fortunes of the Orioles, and the Rays are a good bet to capture only their 2nd fourth place finish ever, and a reasonable threat to challenge the Blue Jays for third.


From Respectable to Contender
Lets go with the Mariners. As awful as their lineup looks (Richie Sexson and his Mendoza like .209 in the heart of it), they actually finished with 88 wins last year. Smoke and mirrors, I suppose. Does Erik Bedard give them 8-10 more wins? We say yes. Factor in the Angels starting the season without Lackey and Escobar, and the Mariners go to the playoffs, if only for a cup of coffee.


Contender to Champion
Among last year's playoff teams, the best chance for a WS ring is still the Red Sox. Their championship roster was not only kept in tact, but now their young guys who outperformed expectations last year (Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, and Pedroia) will be more seasoned. Pitching wins championships and the Sox are deep in their rotation as well as their bullpen. (This will especially be the case in the playoffs when the former is contracted at at the expense of the latter).

But since its boring to pick the reigning champ, let's consider the other options.

The Tigers, with their lineup that threatens to break records and an above average rotation with a front line starter in Verlander, seem the easy pick here. But their bullpen is shaky(Todd Jones closing, Zumaya and Rodney both nicked up), and maybe Sheff starts to feel his age, and...let's take their Division rivals instead.

Sticking with the pitching cliche we'll go with the Tribe, and in this case ride Sabathia and Carmona and a playoff' season's worth of experience. Their lineup is the same one that's scored 800+ runs each of the last two years. Plus, considering the likely anxiety over CC leaving, perhaps they'll feel the pressure and add a deadline piece; they have the farm system to be major players. So as long as Eric Wedge doesn't mess things up, we got the Indians celebrating for the first time since 1948.

Baseball Preview, part 2: Coaches on the Hot Seat

1. Eric Wedge - after blowing a 3-1 lead in the ALCS and with an improved Tigers team in their division, there should be a sense of urgency in Cleveland. Wedge's stubbornness in using the mediocre Joe Borowski at closer last year, and the way the team fell flat with high expectations in 2006, are signs he might not be up to the task.

2. Willie Randolph - this is pretty self-explanatory. The Mets' implosion last year was one for the ages. The Santana acquisition raised the stakes for a 2008 run. If they don't live up to expectations, someone will have to pay.

3. Bruce Bochy - an odd pick, because it's not as if the Giants have any expectations to live up to. But things could get so spectacularly ugly in San Francisco that Bochy could be a fall guy.

4. Charlie Manuel - yes, the Phillies finally broke through to the postseason last year, but let's not forget how combustible the situation was in Philadelphia before their unlikely run. It's not clear how much time the Phils' (short-lived) playoff appearance will buy Manuel if they're slow out of the gate.

5. Joe Girardi - Hank Steinbrenner seems at least as erratic as George was and Girardi, unlike Joe Torre, doesn't have four World Series titles to fall back on. Also, Girardi in his stint in Florida developed a repuation for overusing and damaging young arms - if he does this with Joba or Hughes, things could get ugly for him fast.

Basebeball Preview, part 1: Johan and Miggy "what ifs"

We're going to do a non-traditional baseball preview here (that we're doing one after the season has already started should let you know as much). It will be light on predicted standings and heavy on the stories.

First up we have the two blockbuster trades that happened in the off-season. Johan Santana was shipped to the Mets and Miguel Cabrera (along with Dontrelle Willis) to the Tigers. What was significant about both of these trades is that they were both preceded by tons of rumors that the trades would happen elsewhere. The fall was filled with Santana to the Yanks and Santana to the Red Sox stories, and the winter, to only a slighlty lesser degree, had its share of Miggy to the Angels and then Dodgers rumors. In both cases the suitors seemed to come out of nowhere to trump the previously much publicized (and much debated) offers.

We'll play the "what if" game throughout the season, to the degree that it can be played. We'll regularly check on the players that the Yanks, Sox, Angels, and Dodgers would have given up (stats and commentary both), as well as the ones that the Mets and Tigers eventually did, and try to figure out if the other trade offers were in fact better or worse and for whom. Of course, I say above "to the degree it can be played" because such is the nature of "what if?" scenarios. For example, we only know that the Yankees were offering a package centered around Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes, with the surrounding pieces uncertain. Similarly the Twins were seeking two of three Sox: Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz, and the Dodgers and Angels reported offerings were only for Cabrera whereas the Tigers package was for Cabrera and Willis both.

For this first entry, we're concentrating on the stories and the off-season expectations of the respective players involved. As the season progresses we'll focus more on their stats.

The Johan Trade

Mets received:
Johan Santana - 'nuff said

Twins received:
Carlos Gomez
Phil Humber
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey

This is a good recap, a "what to expect" piece from the Twins perspective.


Yankees offered:
Melky Cabrera - The Post's Joel Sherman sees a Melky regression on the horizon.
Phil Hughes - Meanwhile, Hughes finds his groove.

Red Sox offered 2 of the 3:
Jon Lester - ends spring training with control problems.
Clay Buchholz
Jacoby Ellsbury - There's pressure on Buchholz and Ellsbury to keep it up.

The Miggy Trade

Tigers received:
Miguel Cabrera
Dontrelle Willis

Marlins received:
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Mike Rabelo
Eulogio De La Cruz
Dallas Trahern
Burke Badenhop

Here's a recap of what both sides got out of the trade.

Angels offered:
Howie Kendrick - SI says, Kendrick is a natural.
Jeff Mathis - will compete/platoon with Napoli

and one of three:
Ervin Santana - Scioscia liked Santana's spring, management gave him a pay cut.
Joe Saunders - secures a spot in the rotation because of injuries.
Nick Adenhart - might get the call for the 5th starter's spot.

Dodgers offered:
Matt Kemp - looks like he'll will be starting over Juan Pierre.
Andy LaRoche - out until May.
Clayton Kershaw - on the cusp of the majors.

MLB and the Obama T's

If you haven't heard, Major League Baseball's lawyers shut down a website, obamaofdreams.com, which sold t-shirts based on teams' jerseys, with "Obama" substituted the team name (here's the full catalogue).

The frustrating part of this is that MLB, while it may have the legal right to assert its trademark, is shooting itself in the foot. The t-shirts are different enough from official MLB gear that it's hard to imagine them cutting into those sales; meanwhile, the shirts advertise not only the candidate but the baseball teams teams themselves, which is good for MLB. Also, for a sport that struggles to stay relevant among young people and African-Americans, why not to take the opportunity to be associated with a figure who has such cache among those groups? Meanwhile, MLB has asserted itself as the enemy of the guy who ran the company (Morris Levin, who describes himself as "a huge Phillies fan") and his potential customers, all of whom are baseball fans i.e. the people whose unconditional loyalty MLB's business depends upon.

Letting these sorts of infringements slide is not unprecedented; Tim Wu in Slate has noted "the growing category of 'tolerated use'—use that is technically illegal, but tolerated by the owner because he wants the publicity." It's too bad that MLB missed an opportunity to bank some goodwill with its fans and move its marketing style into the 21st century in the process.

Tourney Picks

A Disclaimer: Between the two of us we've watched less than six games this year. That's not to say we haven't followed along with box scores and highlights, but despite what looks to be thoughtful evidence for the picks below, most (all?) are based on hunches, gut feelings, and rooting preferences. The sole point of this is to go on record, should the picks actually hit.


East
I want to pick George Mason (two starters with final four experience!) over Notre Dame just for nostalgia's sake, but can't bring myself to do it, after reading all of the recent Harangody hype. Incidentally, it's only because I haven't heard an excess of his hype that I'm actually buying into it (see Hansbrough, finals pick).

I got Winthrop over Washington St. just because the cougars are an eyepopping 0-5 vs top 25. All five came against UCLA (twice) and Stanford (three times) and if you say, that thats not representative of the top 25 as a whole, I say you have to pull out at least one win no matter who you get your crack at 5 times.

The rest of the region is 1-4 in the sweet sixteen and 1 UNC over 2 Tenn in the regional final. Tenn is tempting, and I could see either team taking this, but I'm going with UNC on the been-there, done-that principle.


Midwest
The 1-4 seeds and 9-13s make it into the second round, with only 12 Villanova crashing the top-seed party the second weekend.

I have Kansas St. running through the region before losing to Kansas in the final (Beasley's quote notwithstanding). But yes, I do have them taking down 6 USC, 4 Wisc, and 2 Gtown, the latter of which I'm only picking to lose because Roy Hibbert's soft game annoys me.


South
Let's make it three straight years that Memphis loses at the hands of a Final Four-bound team (UCLA in '06, OSU in '07). After watching them clank free throws and throw away their lead against Tennessee, I just don't trust them and their 60% charity stripe number.

After that I have Pitt beating Stanford, themselves coming off of a Texas win. It's not so much that I like Pitt as that I don't like their competition. I will never pick a Texas basketball team to make a deep run after my visit there a few years ago revealed that their home games rarely come close to selling out, and the inside scoop from the students was that no one there really cares about the basketball team. So lets make it this five years in a row without a Final Four berth. (If you have a problem with me cherry picking stats, I direct you to reason three within the disclaimer above).


West
Include me among everyone else who thinks this is the easiest region for the top seed.

Duke is only 5-4 in their last 9, but I'll ignore warnings of a weak ACC this year and still take them over Xavier in the Elite Eight.

I also have Drake beating a UConn team that lost in the opening round of the big east. They're early exit and time spent out of the public eye has enlivened the talking heads, many warning, "don't sleep on UConn." Instead, let's just be satisfied with what they've accomplished already considering their early season turmoil (suspensions, Calhoun-AD bickering a a result) and not expect them to do much more.

On the flip-side, lets root for Baylor, the last team announced on the selection show, and give 'em a win over Purdue in the opening round, and an exclamation point on their post-Dennehy, post-Bliss, revival.


Final Four
UCLA over Kansas
UNC over Pitt

UCLA 71 UNC 68
Why? Because I've had enough of the Hansbrough hype. And because he looks awkward and Kevin love doesn't. Though I do love Danny Green's pre-game dancing.