Miggy, the Final Frontier

The final installment of the Johan trade was yesterday.
On to Miguel Cabrera.
Previous entries here.


Tigers

Miguel Cabrera, who was already having the best second half in the AL when we last checked on him, stayed hot through the end of the season and finished as the HR champ in the AL. He was named “Tiger of the Year” which sounds like a tee-ball award, but is actually just the team MVP honor.

Despite optimism from Tigers management, Willis didn’t look particularly rejuvenated in his three September starts. He gave up 12 in 12.2 IP, got knocked out in the second inning in one of those games, and gave up at least one HR in each of the others. Naturally, there’s trade speculation.


Marlins

Cameron Maybin made a splash, hitting .500 and scoring more than a run per game in the 8 games he got to play at the end of the year. As impressive as the numbers are, it’s a very small sample size, and his numbers from his season in the minors suggest he might still need some seasoning. He also squeezed the last out that kept the Mets at home.

Andrew Miller struggled in his bullpen role, as did Eulugio De La Cruz. They combined to give up 17 runs in 11.1 innings.

Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop finished their minor league seasons days after our last update. Technically the same could be said of Mike Rabelo, except that he was injured all year long and hadn’t seen the field since spring training.


Angels
Howie Kendrick came back from his second hamstring injury of the year in name only, as he struggled through the last week of the season and through the playoffs. There is concern about Kendrick’s ability to stay healthy, but chances are his spot is secure on next year’s roster.

After his postseason heroics, it’s likely that Mike Napoli wrested the catching job from Jeff Mathis.

Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders lived in the top ten in pretty much every significant statistical category all year, but both got lit up by the Red Sox in the ALDS.

The Angels decided not to re-sign Jon Garland, and that means that Nick Adenhart will get a chance to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation. That is, if he takes “ownership of his career.”

Interestingly, the Rockies proposed an almost identical package to the one that was in play for Cabrera last year, in return for Holliday. Unsurprisingly the Angels turned them down.


Dodgers

Kemp's weak September turned into an equally weak October. In eight games against the Cubs and Phils he had more strikeouts than hits.

Russell Martin looked on the bright side and pointed to Kemp's development, saying, "We got on [Kemp] about his baserunning in 2006, and he was tremendous this year running the bases."

Within the same article, Kemp agreed: "Hopefully I'll take what I did in the playoffs into next year to make myself better, and hopefully we get further than this year." Elsewhere, so did Joe Torre.

The Ventura County Star suggests including Clayton Kershaw in a Peavy deal, but Fox’s Ken Rosenthal says that Kershaw is untouchable.

Andy LaRoche hit .166 for the Pirates. They have two other top prospects that will challenge him for the job next year.

-Agent Easy

The Marlins' Infield (guest piece by Sackett)

The Marlins infield (Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu) became the first ever to each hit 25 home runs in a season. If Cantu had hit one more, each would have had at least 30. Ramirez led the team with 33, followed closely by Jacobs and Uggla with 32. That's a total of 126 home runs from the infield alone.

The last team to come close to having an infield belt 25 home runs each was the 2005 Rangers, and they came very close. Michael Young was the only player to not hit 25, and he hit 24. The other members of that infield were Mark Teixeira (43), Alfonso Soriano (36), and Hank Blalock (25), bringing the infield total to 128. (Even more impressive, every starter for that team had a home run total in the double digits, with the least amount being Richard Hidalgo's 16. And Hidalgo only appeared in 88 games!)

To further put into perspective how amazing the Marlins infielders' feat was, the Elias Sports Bureau records that only seven teams since 1876 have had three infielders to crush 25 longballs. Only six infield units, the '08 Marlins and '05 Rangers included, have had all four members hit 20.

Cody Ross (with 22 homers himself) commented last month: "A lot of times, teams will have first basemen or third basemen that hit for power, but to also have a second baseman do what Uggla does and a shortstop do what Hanley does ... it's pretty amazing what they've done."

Miggy - Johan Update 3: Miggy

Johan was yesterday.
On to the Miguel Cabrera trade.


Tigers

As mentioned here Cabrera is leading the leage in HRs and RBIs since the all star break. His slow start has been forgotten and now Jim Leyland is comparing him to Pujols and Brandon Inge is calling him a "freak of nature."

Lately he's been playing first base and it looks like he'll stay there for the following season.

Dontrelle Willis has worked his way back from A ball in Lakeland and will get a start or two before the season ends. Though his latest AAA starts were "up and down," Dombrowski and Leyland were sufficiently impressed by his more recent simulated outings.


Marlins

Among their flurry of September 1 moves, the Fish called up Eulogio De La Cruz, activated Andrew Miller of the DL and moved Mike Rabelo to the 60-day DL.

Prior to going on the DL in July, Miller was starting, but now has been brought back as a reliever. He's working on making his delivery more consistent. He struggled in his first week back.

Cruz had his first major league outing in which he didn't give up a run, but immediately followed it by giving up 6 in 2 IP.

Rabelo is still rehabbing his right wrist that he hurt back in June.

Cameron Maybin has played well all season long, and recently has started walking more and striking out less. He wasn't among the Marlins' four call-ups last week, because Fredi Gonzalez wants to wait until the AA Carolina team finishes their post-season before calling up any of their players.

Dallas Trahern spent the entire season in AAA and his numbers have been mediocre across the board. There is not a bright spot to be found among his splits: day or night, home or away, pre- or post-all star break, his ERA is higher than 5.00 and batters hit better than .300 against him.

Burke Badenhop: After a handful of starts and relief appearance he was sent down to the minors, made two appearances there in July and hasn't been heard from since. The most recent news about him is that he was selected the Tigers' best minor leaguer in 2006.


Angels

Howie Kendrick came back from an injured hamstring, had a monster July, came back to earth in August, and hurt it again two weeks ago. The injury is not as severe as the one that kept him out for 40+ games earlier, but apparently hammy pulls dont make for precise healing estimates and the team is waiting it out blindly.

Jeff Mathis had been overshadowed by Mike Napoli, who spent most of the first half mashing, but got a chance to establish himself when Napoli went down. He started 27 of 28 games and was able to show off his "greater all-around game." With Napoli healthy again, they'll continue to platoon.

Now that they've clinched their division, the Angels will be resting their starters. Ervin Santana, for example, will get 7 days off between starts. Santana is still all over the top 10 in every significant pitching category.

Joe Saunders is tied with Santana for the team lead in Wins at 15. He had a rough August, but has started September strong, and is still sporting a 3.64 ERA.

Nick Adenhart is still in the minors and "needs more seasoning."


Dodgers

Matt Kemp: The LA times says, "of the players who have been on the roster all season, none has improved as much as the young Oklahoman." Within the same piece Larry Bowa agrees: "He's way ahead of schedule...Right now, he's at the point I thought he might be in two or three years, that's how much he has improved."

He had a "red hot August," but has now cooled considerably and is 4-25 in September.

Clayton Kershaw pitched well in early August - a run of 5 ER in 5 starts - floundered a bit, and looks to be in the groove again, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his past five starts.

The Dodgers have been careful to monitor his workload, and only last week they allowed him to work into the 8th inning for the first time all season. Kershaw is not thrilled with the 170 inning cap they've installed, but he's already reached a career high in IP.

Andy LaRoche eventually did get dealt for a slugger, Manny Ramirez. Now in Pittsburgh, he's been disappointing. Jayson Stark reveals that,

"Scouts who have followed the Pirates have been buzzing about Andy LaRoche's lethargic play since he arrived from the Dodgers, who traded him because they had the same concerns. 'To see that effort level is really disappointing," one scout said. 'I'm stunned that the effort level has been so poor. To see a kid hitting .170 and not running ground balls out, it's hard to fathom. This isn't the kind of player this team needs. They need more dirt balls and fire guys who scratch and claw.'"

The perhaps politically inclined writers at mlb.com softly suggest that there's "room for improvement."

He's batting .150 in 33 games for the Pirates, prompting local fans to ask their columnists, "...Did the Bucs even scout Andy LaRoche?"

-Agent Easy

Miggy and Johan Update (Part 1, Miggy)

See the guidelines about which players we're following.

Tigers

The news of the day is that Dontrelle Willis was sent to A ball the other day. Right past rehab assignment locales like AA or AAA, all the way to Lakeland, Florida, where most major league Tigers only play their spring ball. Willis line to date: 0-1, 10.32 ERA, and a guffaw-inducing 21 walks in 11 1/3 innings. The Tigers are a much discussed disaster this season. Most stories usually preface disaster with "unmitigated"or "$138 million."

Miggy himself, while putting up decent numbers, is far off his regular pace across the board. We can't even point to an "especially." No - his numbers are down to about 60%-70% in every category.


Marlins

Meanwhile the Marlins are succeeding just as famously as the Tigers are faltering. Naturally headlines like these follow.

Cameron Maybin is heating up in AA ball, getting to everything in the outfield and hearing praise for "major league pop."

Andrew Miller had himself nice highlight with a strikeout high when marlins finished an intense D-Backs sweep a weeks back. Since then he's reverted to looking very much the rookie (with the exception of a strong start against the Phils Wednesday night).

Mike Rabelo won the starting catcher job in spring training despite expectations to the contrary. His season highlight was catching a Scott Olsen near gem. The life of a catcher I suppose.

Eulogio De La Cruz had a cup of coffee and gave up 2 earned in 3 IP.

Burke Badenhop - after pedestrian numbers as a starter, he's been moved to the bullpen.

Dallas Trahern is toiling in the minors. His family is really rooting for him.



Checking in on what the Angels and Dogders ultimately preserved

Angels

Howie Kendrick - After hitting .500 through the first 10 games of the season, Kendrick spent a month on the DL because of his hamstring. Now he's back and slumping.

Jeff Mathis - he is indeed splitting time with Napoli, but the latter is the one getting all the ink and all the homers.

Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders have been on fire. They dot the AL's pitching leaderboards.. Saunders is in the top 10 in Wins, ERA, and WHIP. So is Santana, but along with Ks, CGs, and IPs to boot. Their combined line: 17-5, 3.14 ERA.

Nick Adenhart picked up his first major league win and was promptly sent back to the minors


Dodgers

Matt Kemp - while he's mostly on a similar pace as he was last year, because of a full season he'll have career bests in every category. He's already set those marks for SB and 2B (and about to do so for SO too). He's hitting .300 and is the Dodgers leading run producer. His numbers are strikingly similar to Miggy's, plus the stolen bases.

Andy LaRoche rehabbed in the spring and had to sit in AAA, mostly stewing over sitting in AAA. Up until now management preferred Terry Tifee, but Laroche will finally get a taste.

Clayton Kershaw - He was sitting on the cusp after spring training and now got the call up on 5/25. He gave up a workman-like 2 in 6 innins of work and even struck out 7. Since then, he's struggled, walking guys at Dontrelle-like rate.

The Johan portion will follow shortly.

Marlins On Top

The Marlins have baseballs best record at 23-14. They've won 7 straight, but more importantly, over the weekend, they just locked up Hanley Ramirez long term. While their current success might be fleeting, the Hanley deal should be a sign of perennial success, or at least a commitment to that success, for years to come.

For those Marlins fans that are still dubious, being once burned by the Delgado signing and Lo Duca extension of 2004, only to see them shipped off within a year, they should recall that those moves were motivated by an anticipated stadium deal, one that never came to fruition. This time, however, the Hanley signing comes on the heels of an actual finalized stadium deal, and should be regarded as the authentic sign of change that it is.

Are the 2008 Marlins for real?

Our recent post on surprise division leaders generated some discussion about whether Florida's strong start can hold up, so we've decided to go a little deeper into this:

Pitching

Projected returns of key starting pitchers:
-Sanchez: All-Star Break, at best.
-Johnson: September or next season.
-Mitre: aiming for June.

In the meantime, Miller has improved with virtually every start, although he has yet to pitch more than five innings and his ERA is still barely below 8.

Schedule

No sooner did we emphasize the Marlins' easy schedule than they impressively took 2 of 3 at Milwaukee this past weekend. Some other upcoming series that will help determine if this team is for real:

May 20-22: hosting the Diamondbacks for a 3-game set.

May 26-June 5: a 10-game road trip including 3 at the Mets, 3 at the Phils, and 4 at Atlanta.

Surprise Division Leaders

It's only April, but there are surprises atop three divisions - the White Sox, the A's (tied with the Angels), and the Marlins.


For Oakland's strong start, Jeff Hackman of the Hardball Times credits productive starting pitching.


The White Sox have based their success so far on both offense - 2nd in the AL only to Boston in runs scored, and first in home runs (led by Thome and Crede with 5 apiece) - and pitching (team ERA behind only Oakland and Minnesota). They've also benefited from a weaker-than-expected AL Central.


Florida's run seems the most likely to be a fluke - they've got a negative run differential, have beaten up on the Pirates and Nats, and their starting pitching hasn't been there: of their rotation, only Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson have ERAs under 6. Things could get ugly fast if the heavily-taxed bullpen starts to wear down or Hanley Ramirez goes into a slump. Also, despite their strong start, they're again having trouble filling the seats.

Baseball Preview, part 4: Trade Bait

Hank Blalock - his production has dropped off in the past few years, but his salary has been rising and just as the going-nowhere Rangers shipped Teixiera last season, they could look for someone to take Blalock (who has often been linked to trade rumors) off their hands.

Keith Foulke - the A's have a reclamation project going with him. Oakland will be hard-pressed to finish above 3rd this year, and several of the contenders will inevitably be looking for bullpen help, so if he pans out it wouldn't be surprising for the A's to try to parlay him for some younger talent.

Kevin Gregg - you wouldn't think that (a) Florida had anybody left to trade and (b) that he was the highest-paid Marlin at $2.5 million, but with the team always looking to cut costs and the fact that contenders will be looking to add an OK reliever, he could easily switch teams before the deadline.

Anyone on the White Sox - this team has a high payroll and plenty of big-money players, yet it's hard to imagine them being able to challenge Cleveland and Detroit in their division. This could mean some rebuilding-type moves are in the cards for this season.

Basebeball Preview, part 1: Johan and Miggy "what ifs"

We're going to do a non-traditional baseball preview here (that we're doing one after the season has already started should let you know as much). It will be light on predicted standings and heavy on the stories.

First up we have the two blockbuster trades that happened in the off-season. Johan Santana was shipped to the Mets and Miguel Cabrera (along with Dontrelle Willis) to the Tigers. What was significant about both of these trades is that they were both preceded by tons of rumors that the trades would happen elsewhere. The fall was filled with Santana to the Yanks and Santana to the Red Sox stories, and the winter, to only a slighlty lesser degree, had its share of Miggy to the Angels and then Dodgers rumors. In both cases the suitors seemed to come out of nowhere to trump the previously much publicized (and much debated) offers.

We'll play the "what if" game throughout the season, to the degree that it can be played. We'll regularly check on the players that the Yanks, Sox, Angels, and Dodgers would have given up (stats and commentary both), as well as the ones that the Mets and Tigers eventually did, and try to figure out if the other trade offers were in fact better or worse and for whom. Of course, I say above "to the degree it can be played" because such is the nature of "what if?" scenarios. For example, we only know that the Yankees were offering a package centered around Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes, with the surrounding pieces uncertain. Similarly the Twins were seeking two of three Sox: Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz, and the Dodgers and Angels reported offerings were only for Cabrera whereas the Tigers package was for Cabrera and Willis both.

For this first entry, we're concentrating on the stories and the off-season expectations of the respective players involved. As the season progresses we'll focus more on their stats.

The Johan Trade

Mets received:
Johan Santana - 'nuff said

Twins received:
Carlos Gomez
Phil Humber
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey

This is a good recap, a "what to expect" piece from the Twins perspective.


Yankees offered:
Melky Cabrera - The Post's Joel Sherman sees a Melky regression on the horizon.
Phil Hughes - Meanwhile, Hughes finds his groove.

Red Sox offered 2 of the 3:
Jon Lester - ends spring training with control problems.
Clay Buchholz
Jacoby Ellsbury - There's pressure on Buchholz and Ellsbury to keep it up.

The Miggy Trade

Tigers received:
Miguel Cabrera
Dontrelle Willis

Marlins received:
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Mike Rabelo
Eulogio De La Cruz
Dallas Trahern
Burke Badenhop

Here's a recap of what both sides got out of the trade.

Angels offered:
Howie Kendrick - SI says, Kendrick is a natural.
Jeff Mathis - will compete/platoon with Napoli

and one of three:
Ervin Santana - Scioscia liked Santana's spring, management gave him a pay cut.
Joe Saunders - secures a spot in the rotation because of injuries.
Nick Adenhart - might get the call for the 5th starter's spot.

Dodgers offered:
Matt Kemp - looks like he'll will be starting over Juan Pierre.
Andy LaRoche - out until May.
Clayton Kershaw - on the cusp of the majors.

Intriguing MLB storylines for 2008

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka: had a mediocre year in 2007, going 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA. Was this due to the transition from the Japanese Leagues to MLB, or is he really just an average pitcher? 2008 will be key in determining whether he is ace material, a pressing question for the Red Sox given Beckett's latest injury and Schilling's uncertain future.

2. Lastings Milledge: his trade to the Nats angered the more stat-savvy contingent of Mets fans (especially those at Blastings! Thrilledge). It's already an explosive enough situation in Flushing following last year's September collapse, and if Milledge stars in Washington, things will only get hotter.

3. Livan Hernandez: looking to be the Twins' opening day starter, placing him in the unenviable role of succeeding the great Johan Santana. Minnesota will need a strong year from him to stay competitive in the top-heavy AL Central.

4. Jeremy Hermida: Cabrera's trade leaves a gaping hole in the Florida lineup, and the burden of at least trying to replace him will fall to their other young hitters. The Marlins organization has had high hopes for Hermida for a long time, and, having improved significantly from 2006 to 2007, he could be set for a breakout year.

5. The Colorado Rockies: you might remember, before the Red Sox completely dominated them in the World Series, they went on one of the hottest streaks in the history of baseball and in the process won an incredible one-game playoff against San Diego, picked up their first NL Championship, and made Troy Tulowitzki a household name. Their improbable run was arguably the best story of MLB in 2007, and whether they can show themselves to be more than a one-month wonder will be one of the most intriguing stories of 2008.