Timmy D Comin Atcha

Even though everyone realized that talk of Duncan's demise had been greatly exaggerated, once the rumor had spread that he had the flu during his game 1 and 2 stinkers (a 23-11 for the two games combined), the Spurs' storylines for the next 5 games were still primarily Parker and Ginobli. Meanwhile Duncan averaged 17 and 16 over those last 5. And that was against Chandler who's no slouch on the defensive end.

Now he'll be going against Gasol, he of the European "inattention to defense," and a relatively paltry 9 RPG. Sure, Gasol might be able to trade buckets with him back on his end of the floor, but then again, only one of these guys is an NBA first team defender.

Expect Duncan's scoring and rebounding to go up, or for Lamar Odom to spend much of his time on defense helping on double teams, or maybe both. Timmy will set the tone tonight, like he can do when healthy.

The Western Conference Playoffs are Here

For all intents and purposes, the NBA playoffs have started in the Western Conference. The kinda-Big Nine, (we wont include the Blazers) are separated by a measely 7 games (5 games for the first through eighth seeds), and aside from gunning for home field advantage, most need to worry about making the playoffs.

Last week, watching the Mavs-Spurs and Jazz-Hornets games you could sense that these games suddenly felt different. They no longer smacked of that dullness unique to the regular season. In the latter game, Chris Paul sank the nail-in-the-coffin free throws to chants of "MVP." Duncan got the same treatment courtesy of the San Antonio crowd. We're surely on pace to break some sort of MVP chant record. Here's L.A. for Kobe when they beat the Mavs.

The reason for this enthusiasm is that the fans are turning out to pack the arenas for these games, because the increase of intensity has been palpable to everyone. And as they turn out, the Pauls and Kobes of the world have been rewarding them (like Kobe's 22 4th quarter points in that Lakers win). It started with the avalanche of trades, the three biggest of which all sent the biggest piece from East to West: Gasol to L.A., Shaq to Phoenix, Kidd to Dallas. Meanwhile the Spurs and Warriors quietly added size and depth (Thomas and Webber respectively), Utah got itself a shooter in Korver, and Houston and New Orleans swapped scoring for a deeper bench.

And just like that, each team was energized by the added pieces, while at the same time, their competiveness was fueled by the other teams' deals. We always hear about how teams like the Spurs or Pistons - veteran, championship teams, - know to take their games to another level this time of year, but now, everyone everyone has (in the West anyway). The trades kick started an escalating cycle of intensification, further motivating each team until that intensity reached a level that normally qualifies as playoff caliber.

Kobe, after the Lakers beat the Suns: "It was a familiar energy in the building. It felt like a playoff-type of environment. It was fun to be a part of."

And Stephen Jackson after the Warriors beat the Blazers: "For us, every game is a playoff game."

There are about 20 games left in the regular season, give or take, per-team. Then there are another possible 28 games of the playoffs for the eventual conference champions. So are we to expect the kinda-Big Nine to naturally kick it up one more notch somehow? How will that shake out for the Western conference finalist? Will they be so habituated to playing at such a high level that they'll come out and absolutely demolish the East rep? Or will the opposite happen, that they'll beat each other up so much in the next four months that they'll be drained by the battle royale and thus not have enough left in the tank when the finals roll around? Because as much as the West is collectively better than the east, no one argues that the East's big three (Boston 18-7 vs. West, Detroit 16-8, Cleveland 16-12) can't hang with their western counterparts.

Just by virtue of the surplus of so many good teams, each of the kinda-Big Nine's schedule is brutal. Lets just look at a sampling, how often they have to play the top teams during their next 10 games: Every single one of these teams plays at least four out of their next ten against each other or Boston/Detroit. (Incidentally no one plays Cleveland in their next 10). Phoenix and Houston lead the way with the toughest schedules (not taking into account back-to-backs) with seven out of their next ten against top dogs. The teams (along with their current hot streak) are listed in order of the standings entering tonights' games.

SA 14-1, (10 in a row): at Denver, at PHO, Denver, at NO, at Detroit, Boston

Lakers: 16-3 (13-2 with Gasol) at NO, at Houston, at Dallas, at Utah, GS, at GS

NO 8-4: at Houston, SA, Lakers, at Detroit, Houston, Boston

Utah 16-4: at Phoenix, Denver, Boston, Lakers

Phoenix (No hotness to speak of) 10-7 (3-4 with Shaq): at Denver, Utah, SA, GS, Houston, at Detroit, at Boston

Houston 15-0: at Dallas, NO, Lakers, Boston, at NO, at GS, at Phoenix

Dallas – not hot, no matter how you slice it: 8-7 or even 12-7 if you prefer (4-4 with Kidd) Houston, Lakers, Boston, SA

Golden State 10-3: at Phoenix, Houston, at Lakers

Denver 9-4: Phoenix, SA, at Utah, at SA, at Det

Mark Cuban touched on this a couple weeks ago already, speculating that this was shaping up to be the best NBA season ever. And it's looking like he was quite prescient. "Everybody right know is fighting for their lives and fighting for a playoff spot. It was a fun game to be a part of," said Deron Williams about their win against the Mavs. Just a couple of days before that, Chris Paul threw this one out when they beat the Jazz: "When you play against the best, it brings out the best in you."


UPDATE:
The guys from bleacher report recently covered this as well, handy charts included.

The Shaq-Marion Trade: The Bigger Picture

Like I said in last week’s post, the Heat are essentially in rebuilding mode for the next two years. If they’re competitive next year, that’ll be a nice bonus, but they’re focus will ultimately be on the 09/10 season. Their sole priority over the next two years will be to build a roster and develop the talent to retain Wade when his contract expires.

One of the way the Heat (or any other team in their situation) could expedite this process isn’t being fully utilized. As presently constituted, the NBDL is functioning at less than half its capacity. Franchises undergoing rebuilding periods is an inevitability, but that process dragging on for years isn’t.

This is why the NBA should continue to grow the NBDL. In March of 2005 Stern said, “I would like to see a 15-team development league where two NBA teams could share one development team. The younger players could get the needed coaching, training and life skills that would make them better NBA players.” Stern is on the right track, but stopping at 15 teams, is too modest a goal.


The virtues of a true farm system
The parent club would be able to dictate the style of play to their affiliate, thus giving an advantage to possible call-ups. It would benefit both the individual player as well as the NBA team: a seamless transition (system-wise) would improve the player's chances of sticking and simultaneously not disrupt his team's chemistry.

No longer in a gladiator-type battle NBDL players could worry less about eye-catching play, which often comes at the expense of teammates, and instead focus on all facets of their game, not just the glamorous ones. Because while yes, other teams’ scouts would be watching them too, they would primarily be seeking to impress the parent club.

Having a direct relationship with the parent club would foster a greater sense of team cohesiveness. The coaches and the training staff of the NBDL team would be those picked by the parent franchise, the players would be coming up together.

There would be no gaps in the direction of development. In SI’s 1/20/08 issue, Ian Thomsen, covering the NBDL “showcase” describes how Seattle’s player personnel chief Bil Branch has to “urge” Sene’s coach to give him more playing time, because the Sonics want to see some development from their $3 million/year investment. Thus without any official obligation, the Sonics must then count on favors from NBDL coaches, should they have a directional preference for a particular player.


This is where we’re at now
The Spurs were the first NBA team (11/06) to go out buy their own NBDL affiliate. Is it any surprise that the team with the best front office and top-down organization in the NBA was the first to make such a move? Now, this past summer the Lakers followed suit and bought one for themselves as well. This should be the clearest signal yet for Stern to act, because while the actions of these two teams send a strong message about the value of a minor league, there are still 28 other teams who have yet to act would benefit from the league's help and guidance.


Why this has become a necessity
1. The dilution of draft talent: With college no longer serving as a free farm system because of so many early departures, (the new age limit only mitigates the effect so much) a new one has to be created. There needs to be a substitute for the lack of in-game experience for the players that elect to forgo their junior and senior years.

2. The continuing expansion of the game globally: The pool of players is constantly growing larger. Right now we’re at 82 foreigners out of approximately 400 NBA players, somewhere around 25%. Nike, for one, had been counting on 50% by the end of the decade, and with Stern’s recent announcement about a 5-team Europe division, theirs seems a prescient prediction.

To top it all off, if NBA can support the WNBA as it hemorrhages untold millions, solely for the ostensible PR and general goodwill purposes, then it can surely fund a minor league system and thus ensure a greater quality of play.


Back to the Heat
So lets return to the present example, the Heat. This is a perfect season for Miami to try to develop new talent. Chris Quinn, Daequan Cook and Dorrell Wright have already been getting many more minutes than their numbers justify. Whats unfortunate is that their isn’t a mechanism in place for the Heat to embrace this rebuilding opportunity with more enthusiasm. If only the Heat could make a couple of call-ups and be that just that much better next yearand that much more certain of their off-season needs. And as an incidental benefit, there would be a lot less complaining about the late season tanking because the system would be perceived much like baseball’s September call-ups.

Perhaps the Heat’s hypothetical minor league team wouldn’t have anyone worthy of a call-up, just like the Heat haven’t called up any D-leaguer in real life. However, without that team existing, practicing the Heat’s system, and it’s coaches reporting directly back to Riley, the Heat (and every other NBA team except for the Lakers and Spurs) are missing out on an opportunity. And what’s more, in five years, and then ten years, and on and on into the future, as the global talent pool continues to grow, that opportunity missed will be a much bigger one than it is today.